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Carbon Assimilation and Modelling of the European Land Surfaces

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Modelling of the 20th Century Land Carbon Balance
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Lead Contractor:            CEA
Other Participant organisations:    MetO, CEA, MPI-BGC, Alterra, EFI and CNRS

Objectives:

To carry out TEM simulations for the historical period from 1900 to 2000, in order to produce initial conditions for WP4 for the historical simulations and to separate the 20th century land carbon sink into components directly due to land management and components due to accidental environmental changes (e.g. CO2 increase, nitrogen deposition and climate change). Uncertainty bounds will be defined using the probability distribution of TEM defined in WP2.

Work Description:

Spin-up of the TEMs to equilibrium at 1900.

Simulation of the land carbon cycle for the historical period (1900-2000), using high and low sensitivity TEM parameters.

Refine the TEM paramter PDF based on the fit of each simulation to independent estimates based on inventory and inversion studies.

Multi-variable analysis of simulated carbon fluxes and pools.  Separation of carbon flux responses to the different forcing in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.

Deliverables:

D3.1 Estimates of the contemporary land carbon state for use in WP4.
D3.2 Simulation of the historical land carbon balance, with an without land-use change.
D3.3 Diagnosis of the Europena land carbon sink in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.

Milestones:

Month 12.  Design of model experimentss using forcing data from WP1, and improved TEMs and parameter ranges from WP2.
Month 15.  TEM spin-ups completed.
Month 21.  Historical TEM simulations without land-use change completed.
Month24.  Contemporary land-carbon stores provided as initial conditions for WP4.
Month 30.  Historical TEM simulations with land-use change completed.
Month 33.  Estimate of PDF of current land carbon sink.
Month 36.  Report on diagnosis of European land carbon sink in the context of Kyoto Protocol.

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