organisations: MetO, CEA, MPI-BGC, Alterra,
EFI and CNRS
To carry out TEM simulations for the historical period from 1900 to
2000, in order to produce initial conditions for WP4
for the historical simulations and to separate the 20th century land
carbon sink into components directly due to land management and
components due to accidental environmental changes (e.g. CO2 increase,
nitrogen deposition and climate change). Uncertainty bounds will be
defined using the probability distribution of TEM defined in WP2.
Spin-up of the TEMs to equilibrium at 1900.
Simulation of the land carbon cycle for the historical period
(1900-2000), using high and low sensitivity TEM parameters.
Refine the TEM paramter PDF based on the fit of each simulation to
independent estimates based on inventory and inversion studies.
Multi-variable analysis of simulated carbon fluxes and pools.
Separation of carbon flux responses to the different forcing in the
context of the Kyoto Protocol.
D3.1 Estimates of the contemporary land carbon state for use in WP4.
D3.2 Simulation of the historical land carbon balance, with an without
D3.3 Diagnosis of the Europena land carbon sink in the context of the
Month 12. Design of model experimentss using forcing data from WP1, and improved TEMs and parameter ranges from WP2.
Month 15. TEM spin-ups completed.
Month 21. Historical TEM simulations without land-use change
Month24. Contemporary land-carbon stores provided as initial
conditions for WP4.
Month 30. Historical TEM simulations with land-use change
Month 33. Estimate of PDF of current land carbon sink.
Month 36. Report on diagnosis of European land carbon sink in the
context of Kyoto Protocol.